Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote. Use the table ...

How can two polls say two different things? And can you even trust polls, anyway? Here at 538, we cover polls year-round, so ...

Dive into the weeds of our new Harris-Trump model. For 2024, 538 has built a new presidential ... time former President Donald Trump led in 538's "polls-only" forecast that year was just ...

Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it would change 538's 2024 presidential election forecast.

Despite nationwide polls pointing to a slight edge for Kamala Harris in the presidential race, prominent polling data analyst ...

And based on early reviews from the American public, it seems like Harris came out on top. As of 1 p.m. Eastern, 538 has ...

If all you look at is national polls ... (538 publishes a polling average for a race only when it has been polled at least eight times by at least three different pollsters. In the case of the ...

New poll numbers since the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are showing Harris surging linked to ...

Donald Trump says “no” to another debate with Kamala Harris before November’s presidential election in the United States. He ...