I read a couple of books recently that, while I’d not like to take a three-hour final on them, nudged my brain out of neutral ...

Several prominent polling experts, including Nate Silver, The New York Times and FiveThirtyEight, had the race at essentially ...

It’s almost a dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, say the polls. But then there are unknowns. What are they?

The bottom line is that modern pollsters are trying to correct for known forms of possible bias in their samples by making subjective adjustments to the data. If their judgments are correct, then ...

Nate Silver from aggregation site FiveThirtyEight Others ... Elliott Morris in his 2022 book Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them. “In the past 20 years, they have routinely ...

His only issue: he cleared the whole order book and bought $274,300 worth ... a 53% chance to win with Harris at 47%. Nate Silver (who formerly was 538’s Managing Editor) has the election ...

In the most pivotal state, Pennsylvania, Trump has taken the lead in FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate ... across several swing states shown in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin average, which finds ...

With only days to go, it is clear that Donald Trump is in a much stronger position than he was just weeks ago.

There is likely nothing more confusing to voters than the avalanche of polls that spill forth every election year. With what ...

Trump’s big win should be a lesson to those who blindly trust "experts," whether pollsters or bureaucrats, who wield control ...

Before there was a FiveThirtyEight model, or a New York Times election night needle, or 13 keys revealing “how presidential ...